Use of multi-model ensembles from global climate models for assessment of climate change impacts
نویسندگان
چکیده
Multi-model ensembles of climate predictions constructed by running several global climate models for a common set of experiments are available for impact assessment of climate change. Multi-model ensembles emphasize the uncertainty in climate predictions resulting from structural differences in the global climate models as well as uncertainty due to variations in initial conditions or model parameterisations. This paper describes a methodology of using multi-model ensembles from global climate models for impact assessments which require local-scale climate scenarios. The approach is based on the use of a weather generator capable of generating the localscale daily climate scenarios used as an input by many process-based impact models. A new version of the LARS-WG weather generator, described in the paper, incorporates climate predictions from 15 climate models from the multi-model ensemble used in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The use of the AR4 multi-model ensemble allows assessment of the range of uncertainty in the impacts of climate change resulting from the uncertainty in predications of climate. As an example, the impact of climate change on the probability of heat stress during flowering of wheat, which can result in significant yield losses, was assessed using local-scale climate scenarios in conjunction with a wheat simulation model at 4 European locations. The exploitation of much larger perturbed physics ensembles is also discussed.
منابع مشابه
بـررسی پتـانسیل اثـرات تغییر اقلیـم بر خشکسـالی‌های آینـده کشـور با استفـاده از خروجی مـدل‌های گـردش عمـومی جـو
A Study of the Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Future Droughts in Iran by Using the Global Circulation Models as Outputs Gholamreza Roshan Assistant Professor in climatology, Department of Geography, Golestan University, Gorgan, Iran Mohammad Saeed Najafi MSc Student in Climatology, Faculty of Geography, Tehran University, Tehran, Iran. Extended Abstract 1- Introductio...
متن کاملSimulation of rice production under climate change scenarios in the Southern coasts of Caspian Sea
Climate change has direct and indirect consequences on crop production and food security. Agriculture and cropproduction is one of the factors which depend on the weather conditions and it provides the human requirements inmany aspects. The objective of this study is to assess the impacts of future climatic change on irrigated rice yieldusing the CERES-Rice model in the Southern Coast of Caspia...
متن کاملمدلسازی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر انتشار دی‌اکسیدکربن خاک در مراتع خشک (جنوب ایران)
Introduction: Carbon stored in soils particularly in arid rangelands soils is the most significant carbon sink in terrestrial ecosystems. In arid rangelands, Soils have special places in both carbon sequestration and mitigate global warming. Therefore, any small change in the soil organic carbon (SOC) leads to a significant impact on the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Studies have shown t...
متن کاملمدلسازی بارش- رواناب در شرایط تغییر اقلیم به‌منظو ر پیش‌بینی جریانات آتی حوزه صوفی‌چای
Two major issues through studies on hydrological impact assessment of climate change are the sufficiency of historical data and selection of the best rainfall-runoff model. Climate models, with the ability to simulate climatic variables, are considered as references for future projections. Therefore, the rainfall-runoff model must be able to simulate streamflow using only these variables. Curre...
متن کامل